0:00
/
0:00
Transcript

HoosLeft This Week October 12, 2025

Guests: Indivisible Central Indiana's Karen Park, Indivisible Greater Lafayette's Lisa Dullum, Indivisible Wabash Valley's Karina Moffett, AND The Recovered Republican Brianna Newhart

Thank you

, , and many others for tuning into this live video! Join us for our next live event in the app.

Get more from Scott Aaron Rogers in the Substack app
Available for iOS and Android

Indiana News

(quotes from linked articles in italics)

  • Around the Corn

    • Michigan City Confirms Ransomware Attack

      • Mayor Angie Nelson Deuitch told the city council on Tuesday that a September 23rd outage that impacted the city’s telephone and computer networks was, in fact, an attempted ransomware attack.

      • The mayor said no ransom was paid, she’s confident the breach will be fixed internally, and an active law enforcement investigation is still ongoing.

    • State executes Roy Lee Ward

      • Death row inmate Roy Lee Ward - convicted for the 2001 rape and murder of a 15-year-old Spncer County girl - was put to death Friday morning at the Indiana State Prison.

      • The execution followed years of appeals and scrutiny over the state’s procurement process for lethal injection drugs and marks the third execution since the state resumed the death penalty in 2024 after a nearly 15-year pause.

      • No journalists were allowed in the room.

    • State Supreme Court dismisses latest Rokita complaint

      • Recall, in June 2022 - during a Fox News appearance - the Attorney General disparaged and threatened Indianapolis OB-GYN Dr. Caitlin Bernard, the hero who provided an abortion to a 10-year old Ohio rape victim.

      • Rokita’s - in a November 2023 sworn affidavit - settled the resulting disciplinary investigation by admitting to violating two professional conduct rules in exchange for a public reprimand

      • However, the extreme Christian nationalist AG almost immediately recanted in a public press release, resulting in another investigation over professional misconduct.

      • Thursday’s order from the Supreme Court dismissed that case after Rokita and the Disciplinary Commission agreed that the Attorney General “really meant it” when he accepted responsibility the first time.

    • Bombardier to open Fort Wayne service center

      • During a Wednesday announcement at Fort Wayne International Airport surrounded by VIPs and elected officials including Mayor Sharon Tucker and Governor Mike Braun, the Canadian business jet manufacturer Bombardier announced plans to open a new aircraft service center in Northeast Indiana.

      • The 64,000+ square foot facility will be able to hold up to six aircraft and offer services including routine and emergency maintenance, modifications and avionics installation. It is expected to create about 100 high-skill, good-paying jobs.

  • Top Stories

    • Beau Bayh announces SoS run

      • The son and grandson of US Senators filed Monday to run for Indiana Secretary of State, continuing the family political legacy.

      • Born in Indiana when his father Evan Bayh was governor, he mostly grew up in the DC area during his old man’s time in Congress and attended Harvard for both his undergraduate and law degrees.

        • Incumbent Secretary of State Diego Morales and other Republicans capitalized on this, questioning whether the 29-year old is a “real Hoosier.”

      • Bayh served in the Marine Corps as an infantry captain and most recently clerked for US 7th Circuit Court of Appeals Judge David Hamilton in Bloomington.

      • In an all out media blitz that began with an exclusive interview with Indianapolis Star opinion editor James Briggs, Bayh criticized Morales for his frequent international travel, wasteful spending in office, and hiring family members for state jobs while evading questions about his orientation within the Democratic Party, positioning himself as above partisan politics, and touting his ability to work with Republicans.

      • Questions for the panel:

        • Is a 29-year old ready for this race?

        • Does the Bayh name matter in 2025?

        • Doesn’t NO KINGS imply NO PRINCES?

    • STILL MORE corruption at IEDC

      • Last week, FTI Consulting released a 127-page “forensic review” of the secretive public-private Indiana Economic Development Corporation as well as associated entities like the non-profit IEDF Foundation, investment firm Elevate Ventures, academic intermediary Applied Research Institute, and the controversial Boone County LEAP district.

      • Overall, the audit found a lack of internal controls, inadequate management and the presence of conflicts that “raises concerns about the potential for favoritism and misuse of public funds.”

      • Findings include millions of dollars of taxpayer-funded entertainment and travel costs, widespread conflicts of interest, and rampant self-dealing.

        • Another example of such self-dealing was detailed this week by the Indianapolis Star, who reported that “an Indianapolis development company with close ties to former Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers received more than $77 million through no-bid Indiana Economic Development Corp. contracts for its work developing the LEAP district.”

          • The audit revealed that Pure Development was one of the top recipients of IEDC funds between 2022 and 2024, a time period that significantly overlaps with most of Chambers’ tenure as Indiana’s top economic development official.

          • Meanwhile, Chambers’ firm Buckingham Companies has been building a mixed-use redevelopment project with Pure Development in Carmel, also announced in 2022. More than $18 million in taxpayer-funded management fees have flowed directly to Pure since 2022 for its management of the LEAP district, a project championed by Chambers.

          • The no-bid contracts have raised questions for some about the potential for a conflict of interest given Pure’s relationship with Chambers. Chambers served as Indiana secretary of commerce between mid-2021 and mid-2023 under former Gov. Eric Holcomb’s tenure. During those years, Pure received nearly $19 million from IEDC.

      • Questions for the panel:

        • Does this accounting of corruption by the Holcomb/Chambers wing of the Indiana GOP - under Braun’s watch - signal a larger rift among Hoosier Republicans?

        • Given their record, I don’t assume good faith stewardship of taxpayer dollars from the MAGA faction - what is their motivation?

        • The IEDC and all of its associated entities - salvageable or tear it all down?

    • Blackrock looking to buy AES

      • According to the Financial Times, Global Infrastructure Partners - a subsidiary of BlackRock, the world’s largest private equity firm - is in advanced talks to acquire AES Corporation for around $38B “in what would be one of the largest infrastructure takeovers of all time.”

      • AES, one of the largest publicly traded utilities in the US, owns and operates power plants across the country and in 13 other nations.

        • It has invested heavily in recent years in renewable energy grids, which play a crucial role in supplying power to data centres owned by technology giants such as Microsoft, Meta and Google.

      • Some argue the City of Indianapolis should buy AES Indiana

        • In purchasing a public utility, private equity firms like BlackRock could pass on debt to consumers and lower service quality to extract profit with no consequences, as consumers have no alternatives.

        • These firms likely see a route to quick profits selling electricity to data centers, fueled by an economy high on artificial intelligence and subsidized by massive state tax breaks.

        • Blackstone, another private equity firm, bought almost 20% of Northern Indiana Public Service Co. LLC last year. NIPSCO then planned several solar farms and other infrastructure investments and passed costs onto consumers. It is also planning additional natural gas plants to power data centers.

        • The result was the highest jump in electricity prices of any utility in Indiana over the last year, 26%. For some customers, that meant an increase of $50 per month.

        • Columnist Jacob Stewart argues the city has the authority to purchase the utility

          • Almost 50 years ago, the city was granted the authority to buy public utilities using revenue bonds, a tool frequently used to fund multimillion-dollar school improvements.

          • Indianapolis last exercised this right in 2002 with the purchase of the Indianapolis Water Company for $515 million. The city contracted with another company to manage the utility until selling it to Citizens Energy, a nonprofit, public charitable trust, in 2011.

          • More from Jacob Stewart: Why Google’s data center plan failed in Indy — and how it could win next time

          • The City-County Council could grant Mayor Joe Hogsett the authority to strike a deal to purchase AES Indiana. It would be an excellent way for the Mayor to begin to fix his public image during a scandal-filled third term.

          • Jesse Brown, an east-side City-County Council Democrat - and friend of the pod - came out in support of this idea. A couple of council Republicans also expressed interest.

      • Questions for the panel:

        • Brown said, “If we can use revenue bonds to finance a hotel, why not use those bonds to finance an electric utility? Guaranteed return on equity is obviously attractive to shareholders.” Is he right?

        • Shouldn’t ALL utilities be publicly-owned anyway?

        • This is literally socialism. What do you make of the Republican interest?

    • Vance back in Indiana to cajole Hoosier Republicans

      • Vice President JD Vance was back in Indianapolis for the second time in just two months, attempting to persuade Hoosier Republicans to call a special session for the purpose of redrawing the state’s congressional maps. Senate Majority Leader Rod Bray was evasive, only saying that the supermajority would reach a decision soon. Some MAGA members stood ten toes down, willing to do whatever Daddy Trump demands, but Minority Leader Shelli Yoder said her colleagues from across the aisle just don’t have the votes.

      • Governor Mike Braun has since repeatedly floated the idea of a November special session for early redistricting. The next regularly scheduled legislative session will kick off in January, around the same time that Indiana’s window to file congressional bids opens.

      • Multiple polls — including one released in August and one this week — have found that the majority of Hoosiers oppose early redistricting.

      • Questions for the Panel:

        • Are they gonna go through with this thing?

        • There are already candidates running in these districts - isn’t it too late for a redraw?

        • Protesters greeted the veep with a couch parked in front of the Statehouse - referencing a parody meme which implied Vance likes to “have relations” with furniture. I think people are burned out on indignation - is mockery the way to handle these fascists?

  • NEW SEGMENT - HoosBAD

    • Hammond Mayor boots ICE from city property

      • Armed agents with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement department were “staging an operation” early Thursday in the parking lot of the city’s police department, which triggered quick backlash from Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr.

      • City officials informed the ICE agents they were not authorized to stage operations on city property, according to the mayor. The agents reportedly complied and relocated their operation elsewhere in the city, he said.

        • “Let me be clear: Hammond does not have any agreements or partnerships with ICE that authorize them to use our city’s facilities or property for their operations,” McDermott said in a prepared statement.

        • “It is deeply concerning that federal agents would enter and use Hammond’s property without permission - especially when the Federal Courthouse is located just one block west of our police headquarters,” he said.

      • This isn’t the first ICE visit to Hammond. McDermott said earlier this month on his “Left of Center” podcast that ICE has been spotted in the city in recent weeks taking into custody specific individuals suspected of lacking legal status to remain in the United States.

        • For example, the Democratic mayor said a concerned citizen recently contacted Hammond Police after noticing a vehicle with Illinois license plates and several people sitting inside that was parked on the street near a home in their neighborhood for more than two hours.

        • When police pulled up to the vehicle, McDermott said Hammond officers discovered it was filled with ICE agents waiting to detain someone.

        • “You would never guess it’s an ICE car. It doesn’t look like an ICE car; it’s not marked like that. And it’s got a bunch of agents in there with their faces covered like the Taliban,” McDermott said. “If you have to cover your face, you know what you’re doing is wrong.”

      • Indeed, McDermott said on his podcast he believes the entire federal approach to immigration enforcement under Republican President Donald Trump is akin to something you’d see in China, or another authoritarian nation, rather than the American way.

      • McDermott specifically cited ICE’s efforts to intimidate the population by walking down Chicago streets armed to the teeth, indifferently pushing down protesters and anyone else who gets in their way, and even using pepper spray on uniformed Chicago police officers.

        • “If you support this, you’re a (expletive) animal. I mean, honestly, you can’t support that. If my Hammond cops did that I’d be run out of office, along with the department. There’s no way we could operate like this,” McDermott said.

        • “I am done with ICE. ICE is a freaking paramilitary organization for Donald Trump, OK? They are not cops. Those guys are not police officers. They’re like little soldiers for Donald Trump and they’re invading Chicago. And I’ll tell you, I am done with them.”

      • To that end, McDermott urged his podcast listeners to vote out any elected official who supports what ICE is doing, and to hold individual ICE employees responsible for their behavior.

        • “I’ll tell you what, I’ll never hire an ICE agent, or a former ICE agent, in the city of Hammond. Whatever job I’m in, if they have ICE listed on their form, I’m going to find a reason not to hire that person. Because I consider them the modern-day equivalent of what was going on in Germany leading up to World War II. This is Trump’s little secret army,” McDermott said.

      • THIS is how you talk about the president’s little Gestapo - his ICEsatzgruppen. AND this is - as a Democratic elected official - how you treat them. Whatever power you have should be used to throw sand in the gears. So, for this week - Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott, you are HoosBAD!

US/World News

(quotes from linked articles in italics)

  • QUICK HEADLINES

    • Epstein updates

      • On Monday, the US Supreme Court rejected an appeal from Jeffrey Epstein co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell, leaving her 2021 conviction - and the accompanying 20 year prison sentence - intact. The following day, Maxwell’s old friend President Donald Trump signalled a willingness to consider pardoning the sex offender. On Wednesday, House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin demanded that

    • Biden cancer treatment

      • A spokesperson for Joe Biden confirmed the 82-year old former president is undergoing radiation therapy to treat prostate cancer. This follows the May announcement that Biden had been diagnosed with an aggressive form of the disease.

    • Qatari air base in Idaho?

      • On Friday, self-styled Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced the administration’s intention to build a Qatari Air Force facility at Mountain Home AFB in Idaho.

      • The move sent shockwaves across political circles, given the U.S. almost never permits foreign governments to have military facilities on its territory.

      • Some fear that hosting a foreign military installation could also create intelligence and counterintelligence risks, as Qatar maintains close ties with countries like Iran and Turkey.

      • By Saturday, Hegseth had to issue a clarification stating that this is NOT a Qatari-owned base, but a joint project with a long-standing US ally.

    • Dominion Voting Systems

      • Dominion Voting Systems, the election vendor that was falsely accused of rigging the 2020 election, is being sold and rebranded as Liberty Vote effective immediately.

      • Scott Leiendecker, the founder of a Missouri-based election technology company who previously served as the Republican director for the St. Louis City Board of Elections, purchased the company this week for an undisclosed sum, according to a press release.

    • Bad Bunny

      • The National Football League announced last Sunday that Puerto Rican star Bad Bunny will headline February’s Super Bowl halftime show, and MAGA is in their feelings about the Spanish language artist taking over their precious cultural institution.

  • FASCISM WATCH

    • Chicago

      • Escalating Enforcement and Protests

        • Throughout the week, multiple reports surfaced of aggressive federal immigration enforcement actions in and around Chicago. Reports included ICE raids at local businesses and federal agents detaining people on the streets.

        • On Monday, Mayor Bradon Johnson signed the “ICE Free Zone“ executive order. This measure prohibits federal immigration agents from using city-owned property for civil immigration enforcement operations.

        • Johnson’s order was a direct response to documented instances of federal agents using city-owned properties, such as parking lots, for staging immigration enforcement operations. To counter this, city departments were instructed to post “ICE Free Zone” signs and use barriers like locked gates to prevent access.

        • Protests formed outside the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility in Chicago, leading to clashes with police and federal agents throughout the week.

      • National Guard deployment

        • On Wednesday, 500 National Guard troops, including 300 from Illinois and 200 from Texas, arrived in the Chicago area despite the legal objections of state officials.

        • The troops were deployed by the Trump administration to protect federal personnel and property, including ICE agents and facilities, from protesters.

        • The National Guard units were stationed at an Army Reserve center outside Joliet and, as of October 10, were reportedly not engaged in operational activities due to a court order.

      • Reactions from Johnson and Pritzker

        • Mayor Brandon Johnson:

          • Strongly condemned federal immigration enforcement tactics, accusing agents of violating Chicagoans’ constitutional rights.

          • Asserted that the federal government was disregarding local authority.

          • Criticized the White House for its rhetoric, stating, “ICE lies and people die”.

        • Governor J.B. Pritzker:

          • Joined the city of Chicago in filing a lawsuit to block the National Guard deployment, calling it an unlawful and unconstitutional invasion.

          • Denounced the raids and the troop deployment, accusing federal agents of creating mayhem and acting with impunity.

          • Specifically referenced a raid where children and elderly individuals were allegedly mistreated, questioning, “What kind of a country are we living in?”.

    • Portland

      • Protests in Portland outside the ICE facility continued through the week, sparked by President Trump’s efforts to deploy National Guard troops in the city. The demonstrations, which originated in June, have been described by the Trump administration as a “hellscape” and an “insurrection,” but by local officials as relatively small and peaceful. This week, a federal judge blocked the National Guard deployment, and the protests were defined by an increasingly celebratory atmosphere, featuring costumed demonstrators.

      • National Guard deployment and court battle

        • Last weekend, federal judge Karin Immergut - a Trump appointee - temporarily blocked the president’s attempts to deploy National Guard troops to Portland, including units from California. The judge cited Oregon’s legal challenge, which argued that Trump was illegally trying to seize control of state National Guard units by exaggerating the threat of the protests.

        • Appeals court hearing: The Trump administration appealed the judge’s ruling, and a federal appeals court heard arguments on the matter. The court questioned whether the protests were significant enough to warrant federal intervention.

        • Deployment halted: A temporary restraining order blocked the deployment of any National Guard personnel, though ruling does keep the Guard federalized.

        • Celebratory nature of the protests

          • A notable feature of the week’s events was the festive and absurd attire worn by many protesters. Participants in inflatable costumes, such as frogs, unicorns, and dinosaurs, danced to music outside the ICE building.

          • Mock wedding: On Friday, a couple performed a wedding ceremony in the street across from the ICE building, with the “bride” dressed as a unicorn and the “groom” as Kenny from South Park.

    • Insurrection Act

      • This week, Donald Trump and his administration escalated their battle against legal challenges and local opposition to the domestic deployment of National Guard troops by suggesting they may invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807. The move would grant the president sweeping power to deploy U.S. military forces for law enforcement purposes on American soil.

      • Context for the threat: The consideration of the Insurrection Act comes amid legal setbacks for the Trump administration regarding the deployment of National Guard troops. Federal judges in Oregon and Illinois temporarily blocked the federalization and deployment of National Guard members to Portland and Chicago, citing a lack of evidence of an “insurrection” in those cities.

      • Trump’s statement: When asked by a reporter on Monday under what circumstances he would invoke the Insurrection Act, Trump said, “If people were being killed and courts were holding us up, or governors or mayors were holding us up, sure, I’d do that”.

  • ISRAEL

    • Israel-Hamas ceasefire

      • Following an intensive week of diplomacy, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was approved by the Israeli government, bringing a temporary halt to the two-year-long war with Hamas in Gaza. The agreement includes a phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and a ramp-up of humanitarian aid. U.S. and other international leaders have been active in the region to support the plan’s implementation.

      • Ceasefire and hostage release

        • Agreement details: Israel approved the first phase of the peace deal late last week, which immediately brought a ceasefire into effect. This stage involves Hamas releasing the remaining hostages taken during the October 7, 2023 attack in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.

        • Hostage release timeline: A 72-hour period for the exchange began last week, with the hostage release expected to start early Monday, October 13. Some family members expressed relief, but others have voiced frustration over the terms, which include the release of prisoners convicted of violent crimes. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for his role in brokering the deal.

      • Humanitarian aid and troop withdrawal

        • Aid increases: Following the ceasefire, preparations began immediately to increase the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. An Israeli defense body confirmed that aid would ramp up to around 600 trucks per day, including food, medical supplies, and fuel.

        • Palestinians return home: As Israeli forces began a partial withdrawal from certain areas, tens of thousands of Palestinians started returning to their homes in northern Gaza, many finding widespread destruction. Relief workers described mixed emotions among Gazans, with joy over the ceasefire mixed with despair over the long-term impact of the war.

      • International support: The United States is sending up to 200 troops to establish a coordination center in Israel, working with forces from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the UAE to monitor the ceasefire. The European Union also released a statement welcoming the agreement and supporting a lasting peace.

      • Diplomatic efforts and regional stability

        • Upcoming summit: Donald Trump, who is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday, will chair a summit of more than 20 countries in Egypt next week. The meeting will aim to solidify the ceasefire and promote stability in the Middle East.

        • Ongoing tensions in Lebanon: Despite the Gaza ceasefire, an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed one person overnight in an attack targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This follows a previous ceasefire brokered last year between Israel and Lebanon.

  • LATIN AMERICA

    • Anti-narcotics task force

      • On Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the establishment of a new counter-narcotics joint task force to operate in the Caribbean.

      • The task force was created under the direction of President Trump and is intended to “crush” drug cartels.

      • The announcement came amid heightened tensions with Venezuela, which had accused the U.S. of carrying out illegal incursions and military provocation. The U.S. military has conducted strikes against vessels in the Caribbean that were allegedly transporting drugs.

    • Venezuelan opposition leader wins Nobel Peace Prize

      • On October 10, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado.

      • Machado, who ran as an opposition presidential candidate against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s 2024 elections, was recognized for her efforts to promote democracy.

      • Machado dedicated the award to “the suffering people of Venezuela” and to U.S. President Trump for his “decisive support”.

      • The decision was met with criticism from the White House Communications Director, who felt the committee was motivated by politics.

    • Argentina bailout finalized

      • The U.S. Treasury finalized a $20 billion financial support package for Argentina, an ally of the Trump administration led by President Javier Milei.

      • The bailout includes a currency swap with Argentina’s central bank and the direct purchase of Argentine pesos.

      • The move has been criticized for potentially benefiting U.S. investors with ties to the Trump administration and for being politically motivated.

      • The timing of the bailout has also been questioned, as it came during a U.S. government shutdown.

  • ECONOMY

    • China tariff threat and market response

      • China’s export controls: On Thursday, China announced new restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals and related technologies. These materials are critical for manufacturing advanced technology like military equipment, electronics, and electric vehicles.

      • Trump’s 100% tariff threat: The next day, President Trump responded by threatening to impose an additional 100% tariff on all imports from China, effective November 1. The new levy would be in addition to existing tariffs, escalating trade tensions to a level previously seen in April 2025. Trump’s announcement also included potential U.S. export controls on “critical software”.

      • U.S. markets reacted with a significant plunge on Friday. The NASDAQ suffered its largest drop since April, and bond yields fell sharply as investors sought safer assets. Concerns mounted that the renewed trade war could trigger a stagflationary recession.

      • China’s response: On Sunday, October 12, China’s Commerce Ministry stated it was not afraid of a tariff war but preferred negotiation. The ministry also justified its export controls as a defensive response to U.S. actions.

    • Government shutdown and layoffs

      • In addition to the trade issues, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown began to have more severe economic consequences:

      • Federal employee layoffs: The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) began laying off federal workers, citing the ongoing shutdown. Mass firings of over 4,000 employees were announced, and more layoffs were expected if the shutdown continued.

      • Economic drag: Economists warned that the shutdown was starting to noticeably slow economic activity, with some estimating a 15 basis point reduction in GDP for each week it lasts. Evidence from state-level jobless claims also pointed to a slowing economy.

    • Looming risks for the U.S. economy

      • For the U.S. economy, the combined effect of the renewed trade war and the government shutdown created a “perfect storm” of negative factors:

      • Heightened recession risk: The new 100% tariffs, if implemented, could significantly increase inflation and reduce GDP growth, fueling fears of a recession.

      • Uncertainty and volatility: Increased trade tensions, combined with the ongoing government shutdown, have injected significant uncertainty and volatility into markets.

    • And on top of all this, the AI bubble keeps inflating and must be nearing a popping point.

One Big Thing - No Kings 2.0: is peaceful protest enough?

(quotes from linked articles in italics)

  • Revisiting No Kings 1.0

    • No Kings 1.0 made a clear, disciplined case for nonviolent peaceful protest — not performative spectacle but organized civil resistance conducted within legal and institutional channels. It argued that sustained, lawful pressure and broad-based participation can delegitimize authoritarian actors while keeping the moral high ground.

  • Previewing No Kings 2.0

    • The sequel doesn’t throw that framework out — it scales it up. Bigger crowds, longer pressure, broader coalitions. The same peaceful backbone, just grander in scope.

    • The question I ask now is whether even that’s enough. If the state will ignore millions of citizens asking nicely, what happens - to borrow a phrase - when the people “stop being polite… and start getting real.”

  • Debating organized, permitted protests vs. spontaneous, disruptive protests

    • 3.5% Rule - sustained, active peaceful protest by 3.5% of the population

      • The number is frequently cited in leftwing circles, serving as a rallying cry for people who oppose Donald Trump: if 3.5% of a population protests against a regime, the regime will fail.

      • Left-leaning content creators, activists and media have boosted the 3.5% rule as the anti-Trump resistance has grown. A Pod Save America episode in June was headlined The 3.5% Protest Rule That Could Bring Down Trump. Social media posts from protest groups broke down the rule and its limitations.

      • What is the 3.5% protest rule?

        • Political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan created a database of civil resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006, analyzing whether non-violent or violent movements were more likely to succeed and whether there was a tipping point in terms of size for protests to actually expel the party or person in power.

        • As Chenoweth, a Harvard professor, has described it, they were skeptical of non-violent resistance. But the results showed non-violent campaigns were often much larger and were twice as likely to succeed than violent movements. They were more representative of the population, and, they found, active and sustained participation by 3.5% of a population meant a movement would succeed, with very few, specific exceptions.

        • If 3.5% of people are actively participating in a mass movement, there are many more supporters who aren’t active participants, underscoring broad dissent against the regime. And among those participants are often defectors, people who were once part of the regime or its support structure who have since joined the other side.

        • Some examples cited in Chenoweth’s work include the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005, the People Power movement in the Philippines in 1986, and the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003.

        • In a 2013 Ted Talk that went viral and brought the number farther into the mainstream, Chenoweth noted that this number is “nothing to sneeze at” – in absolute terms, for the US, it’s nearly 12 million people.

    • The rule assumes the protest is sustained — not one weekend march, but daily pressure, social cost, and eventual defection from within the regime. It worked in the Philippines, Serbia, and Georgia. But those regimes didn’t have a MAGA media ecosystem or a militarized police state built to absorb protest.

  • Looking at international examples

    • In country after country, mass mobilization worked until governments learned how to blunt it. In places like France and Slovakia, sheer numbers toppled leadership or forced concessions. But in Indonesia and Morocco, peaceful movements fizzled when elites simply waited them out or infiltrated them. The lesson: power adapts. Authoritarian movements study resistance just as closely as resisters study past revolutions.

    • Asia

    • Africa

    • South America

    • Europe

  • Economic protest

    • If bodies in the streets don’t move the needle, wallets sometimes do. That’s why movements talk about rolling boycotts or even general strikes. The civil rights movement didn’t just march—it withdrew labor and consumer spending. But in an economy as financialized and automated as ours, how much leverage do consumers really have?

    • Rolling boycotts

    • General Strike

Discussion about this video

User's avatar